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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”