🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro. A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”