🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”