🔗 Share this article Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data The mean number of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official statistics. But, security experts have warned that murder numbers may not point to better national security. Significant Decline in Daily Numbers There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday. “The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years. Historical Background and Government Plan Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency. That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year. At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The key elements of the President's security strategy involve: Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard. Improving information gathering and investigation efforts. Enhanced cooperation between various authorities. Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances. “This would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.” According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%. “Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially high numbers of murders. “Employing the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated. Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress An area where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas. Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year. A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and narco-violence. “The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.
The mean number of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official statistics. But, security experts have warned that murder numbers may not point to better national security. Significant Decline in Daily Numbers There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday. “The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years. Historical Background and Government Plan Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency. That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year. At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The key elements of the President's security strategy involve: Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard. Improving information gathering and investigation efforts. Enhanced cooperation between various authorities. Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances. “This would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.” According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%. “Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially high numbers of murders. “Employing the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated. Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress An area where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas. Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year. A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and narco-violence. “The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.